Green labour market effects

Background

To better understand the labour market aspects of the transition to a green economy, it is necessary to focus on professional groups rather than entire sectors. Using skills profiles for different professions, it is possible to estimate which professions have a high potential to undertake green tasks. This "green potential" of professions is crucial for assessing how well prepared a country and its labour market are for the transition to a green economy.

Aims

The aim of the project was to determine the "green potential" of various professions and also of the working population in Switzerland and other countries. To achieve this aim, we evaluated which professions and skills profiles might in future be in greater or lesser demand due to the green transition. This then enabled us to establish the consequences for educational and economic policy with regard to restructuring a national economy to become a green economy.

Results

Green potential varies depending on the profession

In our analysis, professions with a relatively large number of technical and scientific skills tended to exhibit the greatest green potential. In contrast, the lowest scores were recorded for professions such as those in the healthcare and arts sectors. For Switzerland, we also established that wage earners in professions with a high green potential were, on average, younger, more frequently male and often immigrants, and also had a higher level of education than those in professions with minimal green potential.

When compared internationally, Switzerland exhibited a relatively large proportion of workers in professions with high green potential. The Swiss labour market therefore appears to be well positioned to face the challenges of the transition ot a green economy. Professions with greater green potential have a higher job vacancy rate and a lower unemployment rate. This indicates that such workers are already in quite short supply in the labour market.

Influence of environmental policy measures on green labour demand on the labour market

This shortage could become more pronounced in the future, as a tightening of environmental policy measures has a positive correlation with the demand for professions and workers with significant green potential. Likewise, in the industrial sector there is a negative correlation between environmental policy measures and the demand for professions with a low green potential, while there is no apparent correlation with overall employment in the industrial sector. It seems unlikely that many Swiss industries will relocate abroad, since industries with a high percentage of (relatively scarce) workers with a high green potential have relatively low levels of greenhouse gas emissions (apart from the chemical industry).

All in all, this indicates that the transition to a green economy might lead to structural changes in the labour market that would primarily result in some professions being winners and others being losers.

Implications for research

Existing approaches to quantifying the green potential of professions and labour markets are poorly differentiated and focus on the USA. We developed a methodology that overcomes this problem: by conducting more accurate and comprehensive analyses of the implications of the green transition on professional groups and for European national economies (including Switzerland), we are gaining a better understanding of the impact of the green transition on labour markets.

Implications for practice

In future, companies may have greater demand for workers with "high green potential". There is a risk of mismatches occurring when filling job vacancies. Authorities and industries should counteract this problem by certifying "cross-disciplinary skills". The state should also clearly communicate the increasing need for technical skills, and support companies in the creation of these skills via tax breaks or subsidies.